Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
